When we’re not sitting on Zoom calls, foraging for supplies, or fretting about health or finances, our thoughts turn to what life will be like when the madness subsides. We’ll probably witness significant changes in how we relate to others (no more handshakes?), how we work, how we play, and certainly how we consume.
The pandemic will change our world for years after the virus disappears, causing consumers to rethink their purchase decisions (both large and small). Marketers will need to respond to life in The New Normal.
No one has a crystal ball to tell us what the future will hold. However, we can make some educated guesses. After all, while for many of us this is the biggest disaster we’ve ever experienced, the world has seen many others. And we know that the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior.
So, at a minimum we know for example that U.S. cities that enforced social distancing during the 1918 influenza pandemic emerged stronger afterward than those that didn’t. And, when we look back in the near past to the Great Recession, it seems reasonable to predict that many consumers will switch to value-priced brands for a period of years. You don’t need a crystal ball to expect a lot of very public wrangling about materialistic values and priorities for some time to come.
But we can also look at several fundamental human motivations that are likely to drive preferences and behaviors in The New Normal. We know that deep-seated values change over time in every culture, and these in turn influence the products and services we seek – even though at times this is like turning a battleship.
Here are three very basic dimensions I believe businesses need to consider as they rebuild.
1. Gratification. When the day comes that we’re released from our quarantine cages, we’ll experience what pent-up demand feels like very personally. Cabin fever just fuels the fire as millions of bored people yearn to have fun again.
But what will this look like to many of us who will be hurting financially long after we get the all-clear? It’s hard to engage in an orgy of consumption when you’ve lost a big chunk of income. As I’ve read the recent prognostications of so-called “futurists,” it’s been interesting to see that some predict a huge splurge in discretionary spending, while others speak in dire terms of a huge retrenchment.
Who is correct? I believe both are. During last decade’s recession, we saw sales of guilty pleasures like premium ice cream increase dramatically. The key is to provide affordable indulgences that allow people to treat themselves without breaking the bank. For example, luxury marketers may not sell as many high-end items, but their customers will look for smaller purchases that gratify their desires to keep acquiring designer names. Can’t afford a bottle of Blue de Chanel parfum for $155? Well, try that bar of Chanel bath soap for $26 instead.
Likely success stories in The New Normal:
· Cannabis/alcohol
· Meditation/mindfulness/wellness
· Gaming and e-sports, Board games
· Gardening supplies
· Home fitness/Peloton
· Smaller packages
· Publishing
· Online education
· Streaming video/5G
· Online cultural events (music, religion, art, travel, etc.)
· Virtual makeovers
· Athleisure styles
2. Agency. In uncertain times, we worry about losing control over our lives. Consumers value products and services that reassure them they still have agency – the ability to make our own choices. This is one explanation for the “irrational” hoarding of toilet paper and other necessities we’ve witnessed; “I don’t know what will happen over the next few months, but at least I’m able to build up my stash.”
An obsession with hygiene and building emergency stockpiles is a route to restoring agency. Already, almost 90% of U.S. shoppers are expressing a preference to shop in contactless stores.
We can expect more focus on the need to measure and maintain supplies to help us face the next crisis. Look for “inventory awareness” in the form greater interest in smart refrigerators that track when items are depleted, or perhaps dashboards that help us to keep track of our medical, social and financial health.
Likely success stories in The New Normal:
· Telemedicine
· Disinfectants
· Organizational products (containers, etc.)
· Contactless shopping
· Bulk purchasing
· Drones & self-driving vehicles
· Contact-tracing apps
· Pre-packaged snacks (no more communal bowls)
3. Stability. In chaotic times, we yearn for predictability. Unfortunately, this tends to open the door for authoritarian regimes to exert greater control over their citizens as privacy takes a back seat to public safety.
To consumers, the need to restore a semblance of security is likely to translate to a preference for lower-risk brand options. Brand experimentation takes a back seat to tried-and-true solutions. Loyalty to established brands may recover some of the luster it lost (so long as these offerings hold the line on pricing). Comfort foods rule the roost; already makers of stalwarts like mac and cheese, Slim Jims, and Campbell’s Soup are reporting elevated sales. Fast fashion’s focus on cheap items that we discard after a few uses will give way to “investment dressing” choices that encourage us to prioritize quality over quantity.
More importantly, we can expect brands that contribute to our social welfare to prosper. A recent survey reported that a majority of consumers believe brands are more powerful than governments when it comes to addressing social issues. CSR (corporate social responsibility) was already a crucial component to many consumers (especially younger ones). But now in addition to concerns about environmental practices, people will be more mindful about how a company treats its workers – especially those on the frontlines when they deal with the public. But, an important caveat: If you talk the talk, you’d better walk the walk. Consumers have a very sensitive B.S. detector, and baseless grandstanding will come back to bite you!
Likely success stories in The New Normal:
· Comfort foods
· Nostalgia appeals in advertising
· Brand communities/brandfests that emphasize collective identity
· CSR champions that prioritize workers’ welfare
Nobody has a crystal ball to predict the future. But, at a minimum when we examine the pandemic in light of basic consumer drives, perhaps we can adapt to The New Normal by stepping on the GAS: Gratification, Agency and Stability.
Contributed to Branding Strategy Insider by: Michael Solomon, author of “Marketers, Tear Down These Walls!.”
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